Posts Tagged ‘high stakes’
June 16th, 2009
Player advantage: 2.1%
Total sessions played: 100
Hands per session: 1,000 (@ 10 hours)
Betting level: $25 to $100 per hand
Total win: $101,400
Avg. Hourly win: $105
# winning sessions: 76
# losing sessions: 24
Biggest session win: $6,200
Best winning streak: 18 consecutive sessions
$ won in this winning streak: $35,640
Biggest losing session: -$4,000
Worst result in 10 consecutive
sessions (at 100 hours play): -$8,175
Longest streak showing net loss: 19 sessions (at 190 hours with
11 losses, 8 wins)
Amount lost in this
19-session streak: -$2,000
I would guess that I have some two-dozen letters from players in my slush pile right now lamenting just this kind of result. Many of these queries are from players who won for a while, but recently switched systems, tried a new game, or played in some casino they hadn't visited before. They want to know if their new counting system is no good, or if the dealers cheated, or if the shuffling routine is designed to foil card counters.
(Incidentally, I used a random shuffle in all of my computer simulations above.) I also have some letters that say: "I've won nine out of 10 sessions for the past six months. Do you think it's because of my new system or money management technique, or the house shuffle?"
The fact is that you can't judge a game or a system on the basis of a weekend, a week, or even a month of full-time play. Even in an entire year of play, many pros have experienced a net loss. If you're playing for high stakes, you've got to have a large enough bankroll to withstand incredible negative fluctuations, and cover your living expenses. The long run takes a long time, but it does come around.
Card counters have used many different methods, borrowed from various mathematical formulas employed by statisticians, to calculate their ideal bet size. You do not need to be a mathematician to understand these concepts, but it's very important that you grasp them if you intend to make money gambling. Let's look at the two most important concepts serious players use to figure out how much to bet, based on the size of their bankrolls, and we'll describe these concepts in plain terms, with no formulas or difficult. I want you to understand the logic and practical considerations of risk of ruin and Kelly betting.
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Tags: blackjack, card counters, high stakes, online casino
