Player advantage: 2.1%
Total sessions played: 100
Hands per session: 1,000 (@ 10 hours)
Betting level: $25 to $100 per hand
Total win: $101,400
Avg. Hourly win: $105
# winning sessions: 76
# losing sessions: 24
Biggest session win: $6,200
Best winning streak: 18 consecutive sessions
$ won in this winning streak: $35,640
Biggest losing session: -$4,000
Worst result in 10 consecutive
sessions (at 100 hours play): -$8,175
Longest streak showing net loss: 19 sessions (at 190 hours with
11 losses, 8 wins)
Amount lost in this
19-session streak: -$2,000

I would guess that I have some two-dozen letters from players in my slush pile right now lamenting just this kind of result. Many of these queries are from players who won for a while, but recently switched systems, tried a new game, or played in some casino they hadn't visited before. They want to know if their new counting system is no good, or if the dealers cheated, or if the shuffling routine is designed to foil card counters.

(Incidentally, I used a random shuffle in all of my computer simulations above.) I also have some letters that say: "I've won nine out of 10 sessions for the past six months. Do you think it's because of my new system or money management technique, or the house shuffle?"

The fact is that you can't judge a game or a system on the basis of a weekend, a week, or even a month of full-time play. Even in an entire year of play, many pros have experienced a net loss. If you're playing for high stakes, you've got to have a large enough bankroll to withstand incredible negative fluctuations, and cover your living expenses. The long run takes a long time, but it does come around.

Card counters have used many different methods, borrowed from various mathematical formulas employed by statisticians, to calculate their ideal bet size. You do not need to be a mathematician to understand these concepts, but it's very important that you grasp them if you intend to make money gambling. Let's look at the two most important concepts serious players use to figure out how much to bet, based on the size of their bankrolls, and we'll describe these concepts in plain terms, with no formulas or difficult. I want you to understand the logic and practical considerations of risk of ruin and Kelly betting.

• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part3 (0)
• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part2 (0)
• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? (0)

And, how much bankroll was needed to place bets on one hand from $25 to $100, based on your count? You were never behind by more than about $10,000, so we might say that you would have been safe in this game with a total bankroll of $10,000. But, here's what you must consider…

If you were behind by $9,500 dollars, would you still feel safe making bets of $100? I doubt it. Nor would it be wise to do so if this $10,000 starting bankroll represented your life savings. There is no magic mathematical formula that says that you cannot possibly lose more than $10,000 at this betting level when you have a better than two% edge over the house. That's just what occurred in this particular computer simulation. Different computer simulations using the same criteria would have similar numbers, sometimes with greater fluctuations, sometimes milder, on both the positive and negative sides. This simulation just gives us a ballpark estimate of what to expect at this betting level in this game.

If this was the start of your card counting career, the first ten weekends of your big money play, you'd probably pack it in and figure that whoever devised the system you'd spent so long to learn was a con artist and crook just selling dreams to the gullible public. But you must realize that normal fluctuation is what makes and breaks most card counters. You can't get away from it. No system, no betting method, no "money management" strategy, no "stop loss" limit will have any effect whatsoever on normal fluctuations.

In the unrealistically marvelous game described, in which you ultimately won 76 out of 100 playing sessions, and in which you ultimately won a total of $101,400 (within 0.1% of your actual expectation), look what you had to go through to get there! Had you played eight hours per day, five days per week, you would have had to withstand one series of playing sessions of almost five consecutive weeks still showing a net loss!

Look at the numbers on the next page and let them sink in. This is the kind of normal fluctuation that card counters must understand, and live with.

Really look at those numbers that show how badly you can lose in a truly great game, where your overall result after 100 sessions is close to your actual expectation. Even more sobering is the thought that you will never find a game this great that lasts this long! Most professional counters are happy to play at half of this 2.1 % win rate. So, most counters can expect to experience fluctuations more drastic than those in this simulation.
With a 1% advantage, you'll win on only about 60 of 100 ten-hour sessions. Sometimes you can expect to show a net loss after 30 to 35 consecutive ten-hour sessions, up to two-plus months of full time play!

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Why is it that so many smart players believe that negative fluctuations are something that only happens to the other guys?

Forget the math for now. Let's look at a practical example of what can happen. In order to demonstrate what you might have to deal with—in the short run, in a very profitable game, even when you're using your system perfectly—I ran 100 consecutive computer simulations of 1,000 hands of blackjack each. Each simulation represents about 10 hours of play in a truly great game: single-deck, Vegas Strip rules, with double after splits, and 80% dealt out. The player is using the Zen Count with all published indices, and spreading his bets from $25 to $100.

His long run advantage in this game is 2.1%, which translates to about $105 per hour. Before I ran the 100 simulations of 1,000 hands each, I ran a 10-million-hand simulation to come up with the 2.1% win rate. Since you probably won't play any 10-million-hand sessions, let's look at what happens in your real world 10-hour sessions. Let's say that you, a dedicated card counter, actually went out on 100 consecutive weekends, and played ten hours of blackjack every weekend for almost two years, in this same game. What happened?

Of these 100 10-hour sessions, you won at least some money on 76 of them, but lost on 24 of them. That sounds great—you lost on less than one out of four 10-hour playing sessions. However, these wins and losses were not evenly distributed. The longest series of consecutive winning sessions not interrupted by a single losing session of any amount, was 18. During this simulated 180 consecutive hours of real-time play, you won an average of $198.50 per hour, almost twice your actual expectation! In dollars and cents, after 180 hours of play in this game, you would expect to be ahead by $18,900.

Due to this fluctuation, however, in this 18-session run you were ahead by $35,640. In your single best playing session, during which you had an expectation of $1,050 after 10 hours of play, you actually won $6,200, which translates to a win rate of 11.76%! Not bad for ten hours of play where you never raised your bet higher than $100…

Hey, if you won an average of 200 bucks an hour, for 180 consecutive hours of play, you'd probably figure it was time to quit your day job! What a marvelous game! Ain't counting wonderful?

But wait a minute. If your wins were fluctuating and clumping so wildly, doesn't that mean your losses did too? You'd better believe it. On your worst losing session, instead of winning your expected $1,050, you lost an even $4,000. And on your worst two consecutive losing sessions, instead of winning your expected $2,100, you lost $7,675. Your worst 10 consecutive sessions contained seven losing sessions and three winning sessions. At the end of this simulated 100 consecutive hours of play, you would expect to be ahead by $10,500; instead, you were behind by $8,175.

And what was the longest series of consecutive sessions in which you still failed to show a net win at the end? Nineteen.

One hundred and ninety hours of consecutive play.
The series contained 11 losing and 8 winning sessions. Your expectation after 190 hours at this game is to be ahead by $19,950. Instead, you were still behind by an even $2,000. This is a negative fluctuation of almost $22,000 below your expectation!

Mercifully, on a game as great as this, there wasn't a series of 20 consecutive sessions in which you did not show at least some small win. So, in this game, if we define "long run" to mean approximately how long you must play before you're more or less assured of being ahead, the answer is about 200 consecutive hours.

• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part4 (0)
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Whole books have been written for gamblers in an attempt to answer this question. Whole lives have been dedicated to research on it. Still, in my opinion, the greatest failing of most books on card counting—even some of the best ones—is that they do not adequately provide players with a clear picture of how much to bet, based on the various factors, such as bankroll size, game conditions, betting spread, and counting system, to name a few. There is no simple answer, and no "right" answer either. But most books either oversimplify the answers—which leaves players wondering why their system doesn't seem to be working when they hit a perfectly normal downswing—or they overcomplicate the answers, providing perplexing formulas and tables of numbers carried out to four decimal places that are fine for academic discussions by mathematicians, but unwieldy, intimidating, and unnecessary for real players.

I suspect the reason that many authors provide either middling advice or overcomplicated data is that none of the answers are pleasant or comforting. Nobody wants to hear that the fluctuations are wild, that there's no way around the flux, and that you must not only learn to cope with it, but understand it. I will give you the facts as clearly as I can, though, and in such a way that you can make informed betting decisions, with no unpleasant surprises later.

Inevitably, every serious blackjack player ends up learning more about math than he ever thought he wanted to. Any pro can discuss esoteric statistical concepts like standard deviation, risk of ruin, the Kelly Criterion, bet-to-bank ratios, and, by the time you finish studying this book, you should have a pretty good working knowledge of these terms. This is not to say that you must take a course in statistics in order to figure out how much to bet on a hand of blackjack—like everything else in this game, most players can find answers in a few simple charts and an understanding of what they're up against.

Most high-stakes pros, in fact, would tell you that they do not use or pay any attention whatsoever to the massive amount of technical data available on every aspect of win rate, risk, variance, and covariance. It is simply unnecessary for real-world play.
But even if you have no intention of going pro, you should understand the basic concepts of normal fluctuation, and exactly what is meant by "win rate." Stick with me; these concepts are not too difficult to comprehend.

Many card counters would like to believe that mastering a counting system gives them the keys to the vault. They'd like to think that since they have the edge over the house, they can't lose. One of the most common complaints I've heard from players goes something like this: "The table conditions were great, I know I was playing my system well, but I lost my shirt! What happened?"

• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part4 (0)
• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part3 (0)
• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part2 (0)

For AC counters heading to NV:
The true count just hit +4 and suddenly a pair of college kids are splashing black action on your table, eating the tens and aces you worked so hard to get to. Welcome to the world of mid-shoe entry. They may or may not be counters, though you can probably determine this in the next few minutes by the way they play their hands, and especially if they leave the table as soon as the count nose-dives.
Advice: If you don't start table-hopping yourself, you will come to hate many Nevada counters.

For NV counters heading to AC:
The true count just hit +4 and suddenly the pair of college kids sitting beside you start discussing the number of aces left in the shoe and the proper index for standing on 15 vs. 10, right out loud. You leave quickly when one of them asks you what system you're using. Are they imbeciles? Shills? House dicks? No, they're college kids. Since casinos can't bar counters, many amateurs and wannabes discuss count strategies right at the table. Although the AC casinos can restrict them to a flat bet, this countermeasure simply gives them bragging rights. If they're half-shoed or bet-restricted, nothing can stop them from getting up and walking over to a table in the next pit, where they are again free to spread their bets until they're caught again.

Advice: If you are trying to make money at the tables and not just brag to your friends about being labeled a pro, you will come to hate many AC counters.
For AC counters heading to NV:

The game has great rules, deep penetration, and no heat. Unfortunately, although you're currently stuck about eight thousand due to bad cards, the "friendly" pit boss just told you to take a hike and don't come back. At least, not to the blackjack tables—ever. Can he do that?

Advice: Yes. Go back to AC where the games are better.
For NV counters heading to AC:

You're stuck eight thousand bucks and the boss just told you you're being restricted to a $100 flat bet. How are you going to dig out? Should you sneak over to the next pit where those college kids are playing? Can the boss do that?
Advice: Yes. Go back to Nevada where the games are better.

In other words, your assessment of table conditions in any individual casino depends on many factors, not just the game itself. One counter's dream game may be another counter's nightmare. This will become even clearer to you in the upcoming chapters, as we discuss the all-important money issues. How much money do you need? How much should you bet? We'll also touch on casino surveillance, countermeasures, legal issues, and so on.

Blackjack may be just a card game, but you'd better take it as seriously as the casinos do if you expect to beat them. And believe me, they are dead serious about beating you.

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• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part3 (0)
• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part2 (0)

Counting cards in Nevada is not the same as counting cards in Atlantic City. East Coast counters who visit Nevada for the first time are often amazed at the tremendous variety of blackjack games available, while Nevada counters in AC for the first time are likewise in for some culture shock. If you have pretty much limited your play to either Nevada or New Jersey, and you are now considering a trek across the country to test new waters, here is a brief guide to what to expect.

For AC counters heading to NV:
Yes, you will find hand-held one and two-deck offerings—but that doesn't mean you actually want to play them! Most big money players would tell you the single-deckers are unplayable. The penetration sucks — if you raise your bet, they shuffle up, and do it a few times and you'll be nailed as a counter. Unlike in AC, they can throw you out for counting It's not illegal to think in Nevada per se; it's just against Gaming Control Board regulations for smart players to think while they're in the casinos. Advice: Look for a decent six-deck shoe.

For NV counters heading to AC:
The preponderance of eight-deck tables will be depressing, especially when you see signs all over that say "No Mid-Shoe Entry," and the penetration is not that great to begin with. It's not against CCC regulations for smart players to think while they're in the casinos; it's just against house policies in the AC casinos to give players anything to think about. How do you beat these games?
Advice: Look for a decent six-deck shoe.

For AC counters heading to NV:
So you just walked up to a hot six-deck table, dropped some chunky black action on the felt, and nobody's even looking! This is incredible! Or so it seems… Unlike in AC, surveillance in the big Vegas stores is usually done from the eye. Assume you're being watched, and with black action, it's a good bet that you are—especially if they don't know you. The first tap on your shoulder is likely to be a smiling host, asking if you need a room for the night. Meanwhile, the surveillance goons upstairs will count down your shoes, entering your plays into their counter-identification software, and searching their photo files for your mug.

Advice: Don't drop your camouflage.

For NV counters heading to AC:

So you just walked up to a $100-minimum six-deck table in the VIP pit, converted a few thousand dollars into black chips, and suddenly, you've got three suits staring at you—and they don't look friendly. What's going on? Do you have a new photo spread in the card-counter mug books you were unaware of? Probably not. In AC, the pit attitude toward new big players is always one of suspicion, and they don't hide it. Since they can't bar counters, they go for intimidation. They'll hawk your game until they feel you're safe, and that could be a long time. And don't expect a casino host to come running to greet you just because you started pumping a little black action onto the felt. There are black chip players in AC who have been playing there for years who don't even know what a host is. Comps don't come so easily in AC; you've got to prove yourself to be a real idiot before the pit warms up to you. Losing a bundle helps.
Advice: Don't drop your camouflage.

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• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part3 (0)
• How Much Money Do I Need To Play Blackjack? Part2 (0)