June 15th, 2009
And, how much bankroll was needed to place bets on one hand from $25 to $100, based on your count? You were never behind by more than about $10,000, so we might say that you would have been safe in this game with a total bankroll of $10,000. But, here's what you must consider…
If you were behind by $9,500 dollars, would you still feel safe making bets of $100? I doubt it. Nor would it be wise to do so if this $10,000 starting bankroll represented your life savings. There is no magic mathematical formula that says that you cannot possibly lose more than $10,000 at this betting level when you have a better than two% edge over the house. That's just what occurred in this particular computer simulation. Different computer simulations using the same criteria would have similar numbers, sometimes with greater fluctuations, sometimes milder, on both the positive and negative sides. This simulation just gives us a ballpark estimate of what to expect at this betting level in this game.
If this was the start of your card counting career, the first ten weekends of your big money play, you'd probably pack it in and figure that whoever devised the system you'd spent so long to learn was a con artist and crook just selling dreams to the gullible public. But you must realize that normal fluctuation is what makes and breaks most card counters. You can't get away from it. No system, no betting method, no "money management" strategy, no "stop loss" limit will have any effect whatsoever on normal fluctuations.
In the unrealistically marvelous game described, in which you ultimately won 76 out of 100 playing sessions, and in which you ultimately won a total of $101,400 (within 0.1% of your actual expectation), look what you had to go through to get there! Had you played eight hours per day, five days per week, you would have had to withstand one series of playing sessions of almost five consecutive weeks still showing a net loss!
Look at the numbers on the next page and let them sink in. This is the kind of normal fluctuation that card counters must understand, and live with.
Really look at those numbers that show how badly you can lose in a truly great game, where your overall result after 100 sessions is close to your actual expectation. Even more sobering is the thought that you will never find a game this great that lasts this long! Most professional counters are happy to play at half of this 2.1 % win rate. So, most counters can expect to experience fluctuations more drastic than those in this simulation.
With a 1% advantage, you'll win on only about 60 of 100 ten-hour sessions. Sometimes you can expect to show a net loss after 30 to 35 consecutive ten-hour sessions, up to two-plus months of full time play!
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