June 13th, 2009
Whole books have been written for gamblers in an attempt to answer this question. Whole lives have been dedicated to research on it. Still, in my opinion, the greatest failing of most books on card counting—even some of the best ones—is that they do not adequately provide players with a clear picture of how much to bet, based on the various factors, such as bankroll size, game conditions, betting spread, and counting system, to name a few. There is no simple answer, and no "right" answer either. But most books either oversimplify the answers—which leaves players wondering why their system doesn't seem to be working when they hit a perfectly normal downswing—or they overcomplicate the answers, providing perplexing formulas and tables of numbers carried out to four decimal places that are fine for academic discussions by mathematicians, but unwieldy, intimidating, and unnecessary for real players.
I suspect the reason that many authors provide either middling advice or overcomplicated data is that none of the answers are pleasant or comforting. Nobody wants to hear that the fluctuations are wild, that there's no way around the flux, and that you must not only learn to cope with it, but understand it. I will give you the facts as clearly as I can, though, and in such a way that you can make informed betting decisions, with no unpleasant surprises later.
Inevitably, every serious blackjack player ends up learning more about math than he ever thought he wanted to. Any pro can discuss esoteric statistical concepts like standard deviation, risk of ruin, the Kelly Criterion, bet-to-bank ratios, and, by the time you finish studying this book, you should have a pretty good working knowledge of these terms. This is not to say that you must take a course in statistics in order to figure out how much to bet on a hand of blackjack—like everything else in this game, most players can find answers in a few simple charts and an understanding of what they're up against.
Most high-stakes pros, in fact, would tell you that they do not use or pay any attention whatsoever to the massive amount of technical data available on every aspect of win rate, risk, variance, and covariance. It is simply unnecessary for real-world play.
But even if you have no intention of going pro, you should understand the basic concepts of normal fluctuation, and exactly what is meant by "win rate." Stick with me; these concepts are not too difficult to comprehend.
Many card counters would like to believe that mastering a counting system gives them the keys to the vault. They'd like to think that since they have the edge over the house, they can't lose. One of the most common complaints I've heard from players goes something like this: "The table conditions were great, I know I was playing my system well, but I lost my shirt! What happened?"
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